Reading DVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DVN free→Reading DVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DVN free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If DVN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $45 DVN trades at 12× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $47 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $50–$72. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.58 (+0.3% / 30d). 5 raised, 8 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 36.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$352.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,536.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing the merger is key for Devon to unlock synergies and enhance cash flow. This will impact future growth and shareholder returns.
Confirms:The merger successfully closes on or around May 7, 2026, as planned.
Disproves:The merger faces delays or fails to close, impacting strategic plans.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Shareholder return indicates strong cash flow generation.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 5, 2026, Devon Energy Corporation (the “Company” or “Devon”) filed a prospectus supplement (the “Prospectus Supplement”) to its previously filed automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (333-294988) registering the issuance of up to an aggregate of 175,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.10 per share (the “Shares”). The Shares are issuable upon conversion of shares of 8 1 / 8 % Series A Cumulative Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock, par val…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $72.00 (median $60.00) · 15 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DVN Devon Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize the merger with Coterra Energy to create one of the largest shale operators.
Realize $1 billion in annual pre-tax synergies from business optimization ahead of schedule.
Sustain production levels at approximately 835,000 to 855,000 Boe per day.
Optimize capital program to enhance capital efficiency and cost management.
Devon is focused on driving significant, annual free cash flow improvements.
Why it matters: Achieving these synergies will improve profits and cash flow. This is key for the merger's success.
Confirms:Devon announces it has met the $1 billion annual pre-tax synergies goal.
Disproves:The company fails to achieve the $1 billion synergies target by year-end 2027.
Why it matters: A new share buyback plan shows strong cash flow. It shows a commitment to giving money back to shareholders after the merger.
Confirms:Devon announces a new share buyback plan over $5 billion after the merger.
Disproves:There is no new share buyback plan after the merger.
Why it matters: Production levels are important for revenue. Meeting or beating guidance shows strength after the merger.
Confirms:Production in Q2 2026 averages 868,000 Boe per day or higher.
Disproves:Production falls below 851,000 Boe per day in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow helps with spending and makes investors feel confident.
Confirms:Q2 free cash flow shows a significant increase compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 free cash flow declines or remains flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect plans and actions. Clear communication helps build investor trust.
Confirms one read:The new CFO outlines a clear strategy and vision in a public statement.
Confirms the other:This change may cause uncertainty or slow down important plans.
Why it matters: Maintaining production levels is key to Devon's growth strategy. A decline signals trouble.
Confirms:Q2 production levels remain stable or increase compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 production levels decline compared to Q1.
Shareholder return indicates strong cash flow generation.
Director — John E. Bethancourt, Barbara M. Baumann, Gennifer F. Kelly, Michael N. Mears and Robert A. Mosbacher, Jr.: Multiple directors departed upon the consummation of the Merger.
by reference. Pursuant to the Merger, each share of Coterra common stock, par value $0.10 per share (the “ Coterra Common Stock ”), issued and outstanding (other than the Excluded Shares (as defined in the Merger Agreement)), was automatically converted into the right to receive 0.70 shares of common stock (the “ Exchange Ratio ”), par value $0.10 per share, of the Company (the “ Company Common Stock ”). No fractional shares of Company Common Stock were issued in the Merger, and holders of sh…
Other Events. On May 20, 2026, Devon completed the acquisition of 16,300 net undeveloped acres of Delaware Basin acreage in Lea and Eddy Counties, New Mexico, for approximately $2.6 billion, or approximately $161,500 per net acre, through the Bureau of Land Management Oil and Gas Lease Sale.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Devon Energy Corporation (the “Company”) announced its financial and operational results for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026. In connection with this announcement, the Company provided an earnings release and certain supplemental financial information (including guidance and hedging information). Copies of these documents are furnished as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, respectively, to this report and, along with certain other…