Reading DVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DVA free→Reading DVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DVA free→NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may pose challenges. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact DVA's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $208.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $209 DVA trades at 18× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $333 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $194–$220. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 37% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.82x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.63 → $3.84 (+5.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$127.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$288.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,136.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below median signals potential sector weakness. It could affect DaVita's performance.
Confirms:Health Care sector revenue growth reports show a decline below the median growth rate.
Disproves:Health Care sector revenue growth remains above the median growth rate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DVA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 8, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Ninth Amendment (the “Ninth Amendment”) to that certain Credit Agreement dated as of August 12, 2019 (as previously amended, restated, supplemented, or otherwise modified, and as further amended by the Ninth Amendment, the “Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, its subsidiary guarantors, the lenders party thereto, and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, collateral ag…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$194.00 – $220.00 (median $205.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DVA DaVita | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CVS CVS Health | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CI Cigna | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DGX Quest Diagnostics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
LH Labcorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
DaVita aims to maintain its operating income guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
DaVita is focused on achieving its free cash flow guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
DaVita continues its share repurchase program to return value to shareholders.
Why it matters: Confirming free cash flow guidance shows that DaVita can manage cash well. This is important for future investments.
Confirms:Reported free cash flow for Q2 meets or exceeds the guidance of $1,000 million to $1,250 million.
Disproves:Free cash flow falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
Why it matters: Active share repurchases can signal management's confidence in the company's value. It can also support share price.
Confirms:DaVita repurchases at least 2 million shares in Q2.
Disproves:No share repurchases occur in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in treatment volume can indicate shifts in demand and impact revenue. This is crucial for DaVita's growth.
Confirms one read:U.S. dialysis treatment volume increases by more than 1% compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:U.S. dialysis treatment volume decreases by more than 1% compared to Q1 2026.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 2, 2026, DaVita Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information contained in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto) is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “E…
Other Events. On August 20, 2025, the board of directors (the “Board”) of DaVita Inc. (the “Company”) increased the authorization under the Company’s existing share repurchase program by $2,000,000,000 in additional repurchasing authority (the “New Authorization”). The amount of shares of common stock authorized to be repurchased under the New Authorization does not include the amount remaining under the Company’s existing share repurchase program authorized on September 5, 2024 (the “Existin…