Reading DUOL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DUOL free→
DUOL
DuolingoNASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$122.63-0.98%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from DUOL and the performance of the sector bellwether UPBD, as these could significantly influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $5.49B
- Employees
- 900
- IPO date
- 2021-06-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$136.05consensus
Range $73.10 – $147.34
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$134.88consensus
Range $93.98 – $361.97
vs price: -9% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $123 DUOL trades at 14× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $135 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $85–$120. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.2x
peer 15.8x · own history 21.9x
Premium
0.9x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-9%
our forecast 38%
Our fair value
$134.84
range $72.61 – $147.34
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 38%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
90th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
18th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral3 analysts, 17% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.54 (-2.7% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$234.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$640.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,130.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal label changed to "mild favorable." Risk fell. Recent financial performance remained strong. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth hitting 17.1% or higher
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show Duolingo's ability to attract more users and retain them.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 17.1% or more year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-111d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Expand user base to 100 million DAUs by 2028
Easing paywalls may significantly increase user base growth.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the sector bellwether UPBD keeps beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting DUOL and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching UPBD for early signals.
- If DUOL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DUOL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the sector bellwether UPBD starts missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping DUOL and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch UPBD for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits DUOL and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-041mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.