Reading DRVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRVN free→Reading DRVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DRVN free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key bellwethers in the Consumer Discretionary sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 DRVN trades at 10× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $19 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $11–$18. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.68x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.28 (-15.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 7 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 55% of analysts rate Buy.
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 23.0% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$200.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$317.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,638.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DRVN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 11, 2026, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company’s financial results for the quarter ended March 28, 2026 (the “Press Release”). The information provided pursuant to Item 2.02, including the exhibits attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchang…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$11.00 – $18.00 (median $15.88) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DRVN Driven Brands Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aim to achieve revenue growth within the range of $1.95 to $2.05 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $447.6M in 2025-Q1 to $484.4M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $1.95-$2.05 billion target for 2026. The trajectory shows delivering growth, aligning with management's reiterated guidance.
“The Company reiterates its full-year 2026 outlook based on the results we have delivered to date.”
“The Company is providing its financial outlook for the fiscal year ending December 26, 2026, as follows: 2026 Outlook Revenue ~$1.95 - $2.05 billion”
Target to generate free cash flow between $125 million and $145 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $57.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the $125-$145 million free cash flow target for 2026. The trajectory shows limited progress, requiring further improvement to meet the annual target.
Target an adjusted diluted EPS range of $1.15 to $1.25 for fiscal year 2026.
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. As previously disclosed in a Form 12b-25 Notification of Late Filing (the “Form 12b-25”) filed by the Company on May 8, 2026, the Company is delayed in filing its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 28, 2026 (the “1Q2026 10-Q”) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). On June 1, 2026, the Company received a notice (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock…
“The Company continues to expect to generate between $125 million and $145 million of free cash flow in fiscal year 2026.”
“The Company also expects to generate between $125 million and $145 million of free cash flow in fiscal year 2026.”