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Track DOW free→NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $33.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 DOW trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $79 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $37–$51. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.77x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by strategy shifts. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $1.21 (+1.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$207.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$408.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,173.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Cutting costs can help margins and profits. This is important for recovery.
Confirms:Management reports big cost cuts that will improve margins next quarter.
Disproves:Cost reduction efforts fail to show measurable impact on margins in the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DOW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026 , Dow Inc. issued a press release, attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing results for the first quarter of 2026. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 18. Furthermore, the…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$37.00 – $51.00 (median $40.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DOW Dow Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LIN Linde plc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NEM Newmont | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
FCX Freeport-McMoRan | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Achieve a $500 million improvement in operational EBITDA for 2026.
Target $2 billion in additional near-term earnings through operational improvements.
Right-size regional capacity and reduce higher-cost operations in Europe.
Dow targets a $500 million improvement in operational EBITDA for 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Dow is on track to meet its $2 billion earnings goal.
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows earnings growth of at least 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows earnings decline or growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This goal shows management's focus on boosting profits. Success here could improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says EBITDA will improve by at least $500 million next quarter.
Disproves:EBITDA improvement is less than $500 million next quarter.
Chief Executive Officer — Karen S. Carter: Karen S. Carter was promoted to CEO, succeeding Jim Fitterling who transitions to Executive Chair.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. issued a press release, attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing results for the fourth quarter of 2025. The information contained in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of Section 18. Furthermore, th…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On January 29, 2026, Dow Inc. ("Dow" or the "Company") announced Transform to Outperform, a comprehensive set of actions designed to improve near-term Operating EBITDA by simplifying the Company’s operating model, reducing its cost structure and delivering faster growth. On January 26, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors approved certain severance and related benefit costs for a workforce reduction of approximately 4,500 roles globally rel…
Other Events. The Company issued a press release on January 29, 2026, announcing Transform to Outperform. The press release is included below in its entirety. Dow launches Transform to Outperform to raise the competitive industry benchmark for productivity and growth to enable improved returns • Targeting at least $2 billion near-term Op. EBITDA improvement • Actions aim to radically simplify the Company’s operating model, streamline its processes, reset its cost structure and modernize how i…