Reading DNOW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DNOW free→Reading DNOW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DNOW free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with DNOW compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 22% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from DNOW and the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 DNOW trades at 20× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.17x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.09 (-43.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$408.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,408.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 30.7 points (from 13.8 to 44.5).
Composite insight rose by 10.3 points (from -23.8 to -13.5).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting this cost target is important for making more money by 2028.
Confirms:Management says they are making progress on the $70M cost goal early.
Disproves:Management says there are delays or problems in reaching the cost goal.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DNOW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, DNOW Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and conference call in connection therewith. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the lia…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DNOW NOW Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 11 of 100 | fair | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
DNOW aims to generate $70 million of annual cost synergies within three years through operational and supply chain efficiencies.
DNOW is focused on addressing challenges related to the U.S. MRC Global ERP system transition.
DNOW forecasted its best full-year earnings in 2025, aiming for strong EBITDA results.
Why it matters: Fixing these problems is important for running the business well.
Confirms:Management says they have solved key issues with the ERP transition.
Disproves:Management points out ongoing problems with the ERP system change.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it may help DNOW's performance. This could signal a better environment for sales.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving or still struggling. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) turns positive after being loss-making in the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:EPS is still negative. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: A strong forecast can show growth potential and boost investor trust.
Confirms:Management increases the earnings forecast for 2025. This shows strong growth.
Disproves:Management lowers or keeps the earnings forecast for 2025 without change.