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DLTR
Dollar TreeNASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$114.00-0.77%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Market cap
- $21.59B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$123.16consensus
Range $117.59 – $162.31
vs price: -7% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$188.91consensus
Range $174.67 – $330.37
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $114 DLTR trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $123 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $85–$165. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.2x
peer 17.6x · own history 19.6x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-7%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$123.16
range $117.59 – $150.56
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
96th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
65th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +7.7% / 30d, n=26for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.01 → $1.09 (+7.7% / 30d). 21 raised, 0 cut, 26 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 8 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
10 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 10.7% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$181.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$321.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,853.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for further details on the recent earnings miss
Why it matters: The earnings miss could signal deeper issues. Understanding the cause is vital for future performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management will explain the earnings miss in the next earnings call.
Disproves:No new details or reassurances are given about the earnings miss.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DLTR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If DLTR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for DLTR and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If DLTR beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +12% on the 2026-04-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If DLTR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like WMT, COST, and TGT start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), DLTR and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2816d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Today, May 28, 2026, Dollar Tree, Inc. issued a press release reporting its fiscal 2026 first quarter financial results and announcing that it will hold a publicly available telephone conference call to discuss these results. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by this reference. The information contained in items 2.02 and 7.01, including that incorporated by reference, is being furn…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.