Reading DLTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DLTH free→Reading DLTH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DLTH free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 75% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.68. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.68 DLTH trades at 0× p/s, below its 0× p/s peer median. Our $19 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 75% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.02 → $-0.01 (-150.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$279.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$585.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,024.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
As of June 12, 2026, the signal label changed to "cautious," indicating a shift in sentiment. Risk fell, suggesting a change in the assessment of potential volatility. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which could impact performance. Earnings quality is noted as loss-making, reflecting ongoing challenges in financial performance.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DLTH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On June 8, 2026, Duluth Holdings Inc. (the “Company” or “Duluth Trading”) issued a press release (the “Earnings Press Release”) discussing, among other things, its financial results for its fiscal first quarter ended May 3, 2026. A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain fiscal 2026 net sales guidance range of $540 million to $560 million.
Increase fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $28 million to $32 million.
Maintain fiscal 2026 capital expenditures guidance at approximately $12 million.
Regulation FD Disclosure As previously announced, Duluth Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) is hosting an Investor & Analyst Event live from 11:00am to 1:00pm eastern time at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York and via webcast. The Company is furnishing a copy of the presentation that the Company intends to use at the Investor & Analyst Event as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information reported in this Current Report Form 8-K, including the exhibit, is not deemed “filed” for…