Reading DINO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DINO free→Reading DINO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DINO free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the risk profile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, DINO is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $71.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $71 DINO trades at 12× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $53–$81. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.86 → $3.51 (+22.9% / 30d). 6 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.4% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$338.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,755.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the $0.50 dividend shows financial strength. A cut may worry investors about cash.
Confirms one read:HF Sinclair announces the continuation of the $0.50 dividend for the next quarter.
Confirms the other:HF Sinclair cuts or stops the quarterly dividend.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DINO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Financial Officer — Mr. Atanas Atanasov: The CFO was terminated from his position.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$53.00 – $81.00 (median $69.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DINO HF Sinclair | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VLO Valero Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MPC Marathon Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
PSX Phillips 66 | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PBF PBF Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | — | elevated |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
HF Sinclair agreed to repurchase 1,455,180 shares from REH Advisors as part of a capital allocation strategy.
HF Sinclair continues to maintain a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.
HF Sinclair aims to enhance operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Progress on this buyback could signal management's confidence in the company's value. It may also impact share price positively.
Confirms:Management says they finished the share buyback plan as planned.
Disproves:Management says there is a delay or cancellation of the share buyback plan.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control and efficiency, which is key for growth.
Confirms:Q2 results show operating income growth compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 results show a decline in operating income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Completing the buyback shows HF Sinclair's commitment to returning value to shareholders. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:HF Sinclair completes the repurchase of 1,455,180 shares from REH Advisors.
Disproves:The share repurchase is delayed or canceled.
Chief Executive Officer and President — Timothy Go: Mr. Timothy Go resigned from his roles as CEO and President, with a significant severance package.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. HF Sinclair Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement, dated May 18, 2026 (the “Stock Purchase Agreement”), with REH Advisors Inc. (the “Selling Stockholder” or “REH”) (now the parent company of REH Company, LLC (formerly known as The Sinclair Companies)), pursuant to which the Company agreed to repurchase from the Selling Stockholder 1,455,180 shares of the Company’s outstanding common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, HF Sinclair Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s first quarter 2026 results. The press release also announced a regular quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein in its entirety. The information contained in, or incorporated into, this