Reading CXW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CXW free→Reading CXW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CXW free→NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly if key players in the Industrials sector continue to perform well. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 CXW trades at 21× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.34 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$340.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,841.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 25.0 points (from 38.2 to 63.2).
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 12, 2026, company momentum rose. Confidence changed to medium. Risk remains elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth and net income targets are met. This is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth is over 6% compared to last year. This shows management's growth plan is working.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is under 6% compared to last year. This raises worries about future growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CXW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, CoreCivic, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and updating full-year guidance for 2026. A copy of the release is furnished as part of this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a conference call to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 at 10:00 a.m…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CXW CoreCivic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on increasing net income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: Big net income growth shows success in managing revenue and costs.
Confirms:Net income growth exceeds 50% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Net income growth is below 20% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would mean CoreCivic's plans are working well.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to Q1 2026.