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Chevron CorporationNYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$187.22+0.75%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CVX is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If CVX cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Integrated
- Market cap
- $371.59B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1921-01-01
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-31
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $187.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$118.39consensus
Range $111.31 – $153.40
vs price: +58% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$277.92consensus
Range $187.67 – $400.18
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratinglow confidence
At $187 CVX trades at 29× p/e — 1.6× the 18× p/e peer median, and above its own 16× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $128 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $174–$230. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
28.6x
peer 17.9x · own history 15.8x
Premium
1.6x peer
1.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
46%
our forecast -12%
Our fair value
$128.19
range $111.31 – $158.42
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 46% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
67th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
77th pctl · Energy
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +10.3% / 30d, n=17for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $4.74 → $5.23 (+10.3% / 30d). 12 raised, 4 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 72% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 4 guided quarters · 44.6% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$226.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,399.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 2026 earnings to show continued cash return to shareholders
Why it matters: Consistent cash returns show strong financial health. They also show commitment to shareholders. This builds investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Chevron gives over $5 billion in cash to shareholders for the second quarter in a row.
Disproves:Cash returned to shareholders drops below $5 billion for Q2 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-131h agoFox News
Legal challenges could impact Chevron's operations and cash flow.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like XOM, SHEL, and DEC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting CVX and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CVX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit CVX and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If CVX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-01), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like XOM, SHEL, and DEC start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping CVX and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2915d agoItem 5.02
Chief Legal Officer — R. Hewitt Pate: Mr. Pate is retiring and transitioning to a non-executive senior advisor role.
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.