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CVS HealthNYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$101.96+1.47%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 16% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like UNH and ELV. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Healthcare Plans
- Market cap
- $123.84B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1969-12-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $101.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$120.83consensus
Range $98.63 – $137.92
vs price: -16% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$167.55consensus
Range $110.42 – $186.85
vs price: -39% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $102 CVS trades at 14× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $121 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $92–$115. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.4x
peer 19.1x · own history 11.3x
Premium
0.8x peer
1.3x its own history
Growth the price needs
-16%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$120.83
range $99.41 – $137.92
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 16% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
77th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 3.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
86th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish7 PT revisions / 30d, avg 17.9% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.82 → $1.83 (+0.2% / 30d). 16 raised, 2 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.9% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 5.3% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$239.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,644.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 adjusted EPS guidance changes
Why it matters: Changes in adjusted EPS guidance can show how well the company is doing financially.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management raises adjusted EPS guidance to above $7.50 for the year 2026.
Disproves:Management lowers adjusted EPS guidance to below $7.30 for the year 2026.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CVS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like UNH, ELV, and CI keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CVS and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CVS and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If CVS beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +16% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If CVS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-06), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like UNH, ELV, and CI start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CVS and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (as amended, the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, and shall not be or be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.