Reading CVCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVCO free→Reading CVCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CVCO free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $592.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $593 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $378 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 57% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.75 → $5.55 (-3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 27.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$164.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$368.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,468.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key for Cavco's long-term success. Strong growth can improve investor confidence.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CVCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 21, 2026, Cavco Industries, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the "Company"), announced financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and year ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing these financial results is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company announced a new $150 million stock repurchase program to enhance shareholder value.
Focus on increasing revenue and operating income through strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Operating income growth shows how well the company manages costs. A drop below 10% could signal trouble.
Confirms:Operating income grew less than 10% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth reported at 10% or more year over year.
Why it matters: This program shows how Cavco plans to return value to shareholders. It can boost stock price if executed well.
Confirms:The company announces the start of the $150M stock repurchase program and begins buying shares.
Disproves:The company delays or cancels the stock repurchase program without a clear reason.
Why it matters: Consumer spending affects Cavco's sales. Strong spending can lead to better revenue for the company.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth above 3%.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows consumer spending growth below 1%.
Other Events On May 18, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors approved a new $150 million stock repurchase program which was also announced in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. The purchases may be made in the open market or one or more privately negotiated transactions in compliance with applicable securities laws and other legal requirements. The actual timing, number and value of shares repurchased under the program will be determined by the Company in its discretion and…