Reading CTRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRA free→Reading CTRA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CTRA free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where CTRA is typical. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
Not enough peers to compare yet.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.66 (+9.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$136.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$316.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,551.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The merger is key for growth and unlocking value for shareholders. Its success will shape Coterra's future.
Confirms:The merger closes successfully by the end of Q2 2026 as planned.
Disproves:The merger might be delayed or fail. This could happen because of rules or shareholder issues.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CTRA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Prior to the consummation of the Merger, shares of Company Common Stock were listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) under the trading symbol “CTRA.” In connection with the consummation of the Merger, the Company notified the NYSE that the Merger had been completed and requested that the NYSE delist the shares of Company Common Stock. Upon the Company’s request, the NYSE filed a notification of removal from listing on Form 25 with the SEC with respect to the delisting an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CTRA Coterra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | — | low |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing the merger with Devon Energy to create a leading shale operator.
Adhere to the capital expenditure guidance of $2.25 billion for 2026.
Aim to achieve a free cash flow target of $2.35 billion for 2026.
Coterra expects to achieve an annual total production of 750 to 810 MBoepd in 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending guidance is key for growth and efficiency.
Confirms one read:Capital spending is between $2.175 and $2.325 billion.
Confirms the other:Capital expenditures go over the upper limit of the guidance range. This shows overspending.
Why it matters: Hitting free cash flow targets is important for returns and financial health.
Confirms:Free cash flow reaches or exceeds the target of $2.35 billion.
Disproves:Free cash flow is much lower than the target. This shows financial strain.
Why it matters: Meeting production targets is important. It helps keep investor trust and financial health after the merger.
Confirms:Total production reaches between 750 to 810 MBoepd as guided.
Disproves:Production falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
director and officer: All directors and officers ceased their service due to the merger.
As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change in control of the Company occurred, and the Company became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Devon.
Pursuant to the Merger Agreement, at the effective time of the Merger (the “Effective Time”), each share of common stock, $0.10 par value, issued and outstanding of the Company (“Company Common Stock”) (other than shares held by Devon, Merger Sub or any of their respective subsidiaries or by the Company or any of its subsidiaries (collectively, the “Excluded Shares”)), was converted into the right to receive from Devon 0.70 fully paid and nonassessable shares of common stock, $0.10 par value,…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. In connection with the consummation of the Merger, on the Closing Date, the Company terminated all outstanding lender commitments under the Credit Agreement, dated as of March 10, 2023 (as amended by Amendment No. 1, dated as of September 12, 2024, and as further amended, restated, supplemented or modified prior to the Closing Date, the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the lenders and issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N…