Reading CSX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSX free→Reading CSX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSX free→NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's recent track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact CSX's performance compared to its peers, where it is trading at a typical level. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence CSX's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 CSX trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 26× p/e peer median. Our $45 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $41–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.49 (-0.1% / 30d). 13 raised, 4 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.4% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -11.4% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$83.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$207.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,189.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how much money the company makes and how it controls costs. This helps us understand how well the company is doing.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 3% year-over-year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CSX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Executive Vice President and Chief Digital & Technology Officer — Stephen Fortune: Mr. Fortune's immediate separation from employment.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $50.00 (median $46.50) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSX CSX Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | full | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GEV GE Vernova | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CSX aims to achieve volume growth across its operations for the full year.
CSX is focused on improving its expense profile through cost discipline and efficiency.
CSX has announced a new share repurchase program with $5 billion of incremental authority.
CSX is committed to enhancing operational efficiency through improved service metrics.
Why it matters: Improving expenses can boost profits. This is crucial for CSX's long-term goals.
Confirms:Q2 expenses show a decrease compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 expenses increase compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Volume growth is key for CSX's revenue and overall performance. It shows how well the company is managing market conditions.
Confirms:Q2 volume growth exceeds 3% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 volume growth falls below 0% year-over-year.
Other Events. On May 12, 2026, the Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program, providing $5 billion of incremental authority to the approximately $989 million remaining under the existing share repurchase program as of March 31, 2026. The share repurchases may be made through a variety of methods including, but not limited to, open market purchases, purchases pursuant to Rule 10b5-1 plans, accelerated share repurchases and negotiated block purchases. The timing of share repu…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026, CSX Corporation issued a press release and its CSX Quarterly Financial Report on financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the CSX Quarterly Financial Report is attached as Exhibit 99.2, each of which is incorporated by reference herein. These documents are available on the Company's website, www.csx.com. * The information contained…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 22, 2026, CSX Corporation issued a press release and its CSX Quarterly Financial Report on financial and operating results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and a copy of the CSX Quarterly Financial Report is attached as Exhibit 99.2, each of which is incorporated by reference herein. These documents are available on the Company's website, www.csx.com. * The information cont…