Reading CSGP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSGP free→Reading CSGP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CSGP free→NASDAQReal EstateReal Estate ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is robust, and management's track record has been stable. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is elevated. Compared with sector peers, CSGP is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 118% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is because it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If CSGP cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $33 the market pays 42× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 65× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $15 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $42–$73. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 115% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 31%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 21.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.29 (-0.1% / 30d). 14 raised, 2 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 76% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$447.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,711.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding revenue guidance shows CoStar's growth strategy is working. It will also support investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue guidance is set at or above $3.78B.
Disproves:Q2 revenue guidance falls below $3.78B.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CSGP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 28, 2026, CoStar Group, Inc. (“CoStar Group” or the “Company”), through its wholly owned subsidiary, CoStar Realty Information, Inc., a Delaware corporation, entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Bora Holdings Group, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the “Seller”), and Bora, Inc., a Delaware corporation (together with its subsidiaries, “Zonda”), to acquire Zonda, a leading provider of new home constructio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$42.00 – $73.00 (median $52.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Real Estate Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CSGP CoStar Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CBRE CBRE Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
JLL Jones Lang LaSalle | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
COMP Compass, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 39.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
CoStar Group aims to increase its revenue to a range of $3.78 billion to $3.82 billion for the full year of 2026.
CoStar Group plans to increase its Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $780 million to $820 million for the full year of 2026.
CoStar Group plans to acquire Zonda to enhance its market presence in the new home construction sector.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target is crucial for CoStar to stay on track for its 2026 goal.
Confirms:Q2 revenue was $1B or more. This shows progress towards the 2026 target.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $950M, showing continued struggles in growth.
and the Press Release shall be considered “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any reports or filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), whether made before or after the date hereof, except as expressly set f…