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CiscoNASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$121.10-0.60%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with CSCO performing above typical compared to its sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance changes and trends from sector bellwethers.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $479.08B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1990-02-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-12
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $121.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$116.53consensus
Range $69.56 – $162.04
vs price: +4% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$139.21consensus
Range $83.06 – $226.65
vs price: -13% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $121 CSCO trades at 30× p/e, below its 40× p/e peer median. Our $117 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $95–$137. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.6x
peer 39.6x · own history 16.8x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast 8%
Our fair value
$116.53
range $70.65 – $162.04
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
81st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
22nd pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +9.1% / 30d, n=22for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.07 → $1.17 (+9.1% / 30d). 18 raised, 0 cut, 22 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 12 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.1% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$243.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,357.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for Q3 earnings results on May 13
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Cisco meets its non-GAAP EPS goals.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cisco reports non-GAAP EPS above $0.80 for Q3.
Disproves:Non-GAAP EPS falls below $0.70 for Q3.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CSCO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in Information Technology to fall below the median.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CSCO and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like MSI, LITE, and HPE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting CSCO and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CSCO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CSCO cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MSI, LITE, and HPE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping CSCO and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Cisco Systems, Inc. (“Cisco”) reported its results of operations for its fiscal third quarter 2026 ended April 25, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by Cisco concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of Cisco, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any ge…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.