Reading CRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRS free→Reading CRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRS free→NYSEIndustrialsMetal FabricationSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CRS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 124% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $561.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $561 CRS trades at 58× p/e — 2.4× the 24× p/e peer median, and above its own 39× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $251 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $425–$500. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 124% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.08 → $3.07 (-0.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$191.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$392.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,908.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
As of June 12, 2026, the signal label changed, indicating a shift to a mildly favorable outlook. The sector backdrop fell, suggesting a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, and valuation was noted as expensive.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if the company can sustain its recent growth momentum. Strong guidance supports confidence in future performance.
Confirms:Q4 operating income guidance falls within the range of $205 million to $210 million.
Disproves:Q4 operating income guidance is now below $205 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Carpenter Technology Corporation held its third quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings call, broadcast live by webcast. A copy of the slides presented during the call are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for any purpose.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$425.00 – $500.00 (median $456.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-04
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing operating income through improved efficiency and cost management.
Drive revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Commitment to maintaining consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show they have good cash flow and care about shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.2 in the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend per share is cut below $0.2 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If growth is over 10%, Carpenter Technology is doing well in a tough market.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth falls below 5% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: This amount shows how well the company makes cash. Cash is important for growth.
Confirms:Adjusted free cash flow for fiscal year 2026 is about $350 million.
Disproves:Adjusted free cash flow is much lower than $350 million.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks can show management's confidence in the company. This can help share price.
Confirms:The company announces more share buybacks under the $400 million program.
Disproves:No new share repurchases are announced, or the program is suspended.
Why it matters: If they reach over $200M, it shows they manage costs and run well.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $200M in Q3 2026.
Disproves:Operating income remains below $180M in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in bookings shows strong demand. This boosts revenue and market confidence.
Confirms:Bookings for the Aerospace and Defense segment show sequential growth.
Disproves:Bookings for Aerospace and Defense drop from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plan might change how Carpenter Technology performs and operates.
Confirms one read:The new CEO announces a strategic plan that boosts revenue or operating income.
Confirms the other:The new CEO's strategy leads to a decline in revenue or operating income.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Carpenter Technology Corporation issued a press release announcing fiscal year 2026 third quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for any purpose.
President and Chief Executive Officer — Brian J. Malloy: Brian J. Malloy promoted to CEO and Tony R. Thene becomes Executive Chairman.