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Camden Property TrustNYSEReal EstateReit - ResidentialSnapshot 2026-06-12
$114.98+0.47%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record is also neutral. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CPT is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 78% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is because it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper with expected earnings growth included. Watch for guidance changes and sector trends for early signals.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Residential
- Market cap
- $11.44B
- Employees
- 1,640
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$63.19consensus
Range $57.39 – $111.24
vs price: +82% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$155.84consensus
Range $110.76 – $200.92
vs price: -26% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
low confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for CPT right now, so treat our $52 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $95–$123. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
123%
our forecast -12%
Our fair value
$51.59
range $11.81 – $65.42
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
$95.00 – $123.00 (median $110.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 123% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
60th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
39th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +21.2% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.27 (+21.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 4 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.2% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 75% of the last 8 guided quarters · -31.1% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$208.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,606.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scorebig change
Company momentum rose by 54.0 points (from -71.6 to -17.6).
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'expensive'.
Company momentum rose. The signal label changed to mixed. The valuation label changed to expensive.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for sector performance trends improving
Why it matters: If the sector does better, Camden may do better too. This could make investors happier.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector growth speeds up again. Revenue growth is moving back toward past highs.
Disproves:Sector growth slows down or margins get worse.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CPT and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AVB, EQR, and ESS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting CPT and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CPT raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CPT cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like AVB, EQR, and ESS start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping CPT and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-112d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 5, 2026, Michael P. Gallagher, Senior Vice President – Chief Accounting Officer of Camden Property Trust (the “Company”), who is designated as the Company’s principal accounting officer, informed the Company he will be retiring from the Company effective July 2, 2026. As part of a transition plan, the Board of Trust Managers of the Company h…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+4.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.