Reading CPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPK free→Reading CPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CPK free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. The top factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence CPK's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $123.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $124 CPK trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $122 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 2% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.79x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.12 → $1.07 (-4.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$84.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$215.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,254.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Reaffirming the CAPEX guidance shows management's commitment to growth plans. It signals confidence in future projects.
Confirms:Management says 2026 CAPEX will be between $450 million and $500 million.
Disproves:Management cuts the 2026 CAPEX to less than $450 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CPK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Chesapeake Utilities Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Gas Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CPK Chesapeake Utilities Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ATO Atmos Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | low |
UGI UGI Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NFG National Fuel Gas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SWX Southwest Gas Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company continues to re-affirm its 2026 full year capital guidance range of $450 million to $500 million.
The company continues to re-affirm its 2028 EPS guidance range of $7.75 to $8.00 per share.
The company continues to re-affirm its 2025 EPS guidance range of $6.15 to $6.35 per share.
Why it matters: The EPS guidance shows strong earnings potential. It helps investors see future profits.
Confirms:Management says 2028 EPS will be between $7.75 and $8.00.
Disproves:Management lowers the 2028 EPS to below $7.75.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well the company is doing. It can affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 3% year over year.