Reading COST? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track COST free→
COST
CostcoNASDAQConsumer StaplesDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$982.35+0.68%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that the company's profits are not strongly backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 132% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If COST cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Discount Stores
- Market cap
- $432.70B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1985-12-05
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $982.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$421.42consensus
Range $351.61 – $793.67
vs price: +133% above
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$818.82consensus
Range $518.32 – $1259.59
vs price: +20% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $982 the market pays 49× p/e — above the 18× p/e peer median but in line with its own 49× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $424 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $1,000–$1,275. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
49.4x
peer 17.6x · own history 48.9x
Premium
2.8x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
132%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$424.21
range $351.61 – $793.67
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 132% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
63rd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.70x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
53rd pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish27 analysts, 59% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $6.49 → $6.55 (+0.9% / 30d). 16 raised, 7 cut, 27 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.8% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 4 guided quarters · 29.3% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$210.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,514.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for Q3 comparable sales growth below 5%
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of Costco's sales health. A drop could signal slowing demand.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 sales growth is below 5%.
Disproves:Sales growth is above 5%.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1214h agoYahoo
Legal issues could impact brand reputation and sales.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If COST raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for COST and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit COST and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If COST cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like WMT, TGT, and DG start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), COST and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2816d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 28, 2026, the Company issued a press release containing its operating results for the third quarter (twelve weeks) and the first 36 weeks of fiscal 2026, ended May 10, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. In addition, a copy of the Company's earnings release supplement for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.