Reading CNXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNXN free→Reading CNXN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNXN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyElectronics & Computer DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which could support growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any guidance changes from CNXN and the performance of sector bellwethers like SNX, ARW, and AVT, as these could influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $72.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $73 CNXN trades at 20× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $108 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.04 (-1.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$233.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,714.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Flat or falling operating income shows problems with managing costs.
Confirms:Operating income growth was 0% or negative for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth was above 5% for Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNXN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Technology Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNXN PC Connection, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
SNX TD Synnex | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CDW CDW Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ARW Arrow Electronics | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
AVT Avnet | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategies to drive higher revenue growth.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on strategies to enhance gross profit margins.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost management. This can help investors feel more confident.
Confirms:Operating income improves year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income declines or remains flat year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this level would signal a slowdown in performance. It could raise concerns about future growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth in the sector could indicate broader challenges. This would impact investor sentiment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit margins mean better pricing or cost control. This can help overall profits.
Confirms:Gross profit margin improves year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin declines or stays flat year over year in Q2.