Reading CNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNO free→Reading CNO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNO free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
CNO's recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from CNO and the performance of sector bellwethers like AFL, MET, and PRU. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $50.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $50 CNO trades at 12× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $55 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.80x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.02 → $1.00 (-2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.4% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$78.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$225.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,103.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:CNO's revenue growth falls below its historical median.
Disproves:Revenue growth is still higher than its average in the past.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3) is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exch…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life & Health Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNO CNO Financial Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | fair | low |
AFL Aflac | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | full | moderate |
MET MetLife | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
PRU Prudential Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | low |
PFG Principal Financial Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
CNO aims to maintain its debt to total capital ratio within the 25% to 28% range.
CNO targets an operating EPS range of $4.25 to $4.45 for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining this ratio is key for CNO's financial health and stability.
Confirms:Debt to total capital ratio reaches or exceeds 28%.
Disproves:Debt to total capital ratio stays below 25%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well CNO is performing. It can affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.75, indicating strong performance.
Confirms the other:EPS falls below $0.60, suggesting weaker results.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can signal economic weakness. This can affect CNO's business.
Confirms:Weekly claims rise above 300,000, indicating job market stress.
Disproves:Claims stay below 250,000, suggesting a stable job market.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS target shows strong earnings performance and growth potential.
Confirms:Operating EPS for Q2 reaches or exceeds $4.45.
Disproves:Operating EPS for Q2 falls below $4.25.