Reading CNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNM free→Reading CNM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNM free→NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from CNM and the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 CNM trades at 27× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.78 → $0.84 (+7.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -52.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$125.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$299.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 41.9 points (from 6.9 to 48.8).
Composite insight rose by 17.3 points (from -9.0 to 8.3).
Company momentum rose by 18.5 points (from -41.6 to -23.1).
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing down. If revenue growth picks up, it could help Core & Main.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the sector accelerates back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth is under 5%. This shows ongoing weakness in the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 is being “furnished” herewith and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by Core & Main under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filings, except as shall be e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNM Core & Main | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Core & Main aims to achieve net sales growth of 2% to 3% for fiscal 2026.
Core & Main is executing its growth strategy supported by changes in its board of directors.
Core & Main aims to achieve operating cash flow of 60% to 70% of Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2026.
Company momentum rose. Risk label changed to moderate from elevated.
as of 2026-06-12
Why it matters: PPI affects input costs for Core & Main. Changes can signal shifts in pricing power.
Confirms one read:PPI shows a drop. This means lower input costs and better profit margins.
Confirms the other:PPI shows an increase. This means higher input costs and tighter profit margins.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well Core & Main is managing in a tough sector. It can impact investor views on the company's future.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) is over $0.30. This shows better performance than expected.
Confirms the other:EPS is under $0.20. This shows worse performance and possible problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Core & Main is performing in a slowing sector. Investors will look for signs of growth or weakness.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue growth above 6% compared to last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth slowing below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can show if the economy is strong or weak. This affects Core & Main's business.
Confirms one read:Claims drop below 200,000, suggesting a strong job market that could boost demand.
Confirms the other:Claims go over 300,000. This shows economic weakness that could hurt sales.
Why it matters: CPI affects inflation and consumer spending. Changes can impact Core & Main's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:CPI shows a drop. This means inflation is easing and consumers may spend more.
Confirms the other:CPI shows an increase. This means inflation is still high and consumers may spend less.