Reading CNH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNH free→Reading CNH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNH free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is moderate, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, CNH trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players like CAT, DE, and PCAR. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 CNH trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $10–$16. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 42% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 6.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.10 (-6.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$330.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,319.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows CNH can fund growth and pay debts. This is vital for stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Focus on revenue growth
Investment supports revenue growth through enhanced capabilities.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, CNH Industrial N.V. issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the first quarter of 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$10.50 – $16.00 (median $12.63) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNH CNH Industrial | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CW Curtiss-Wright | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRS Carpenter Technology | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ATI ATI Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive revenue growth despite challenging market conditions.
Management is focused on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Management aims to improve cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth shows CNH is moving past current challenges. This is key for future performance.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% compared to Q1 results.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth stays below 6% compared to Q1 results.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for CNH to show it can manage costs better.
Confirms:Operating income increases from Q1 to Q2.
Disproves:Operating income declines or stays flat from Q1 to Q2.