Reading CNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNC free→Reading CNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CNC free→NYSEHealth CareHealthcare PlansSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
CNC shows a mixed setup, with recent financial performance being neutral and management's track record being volatile, indicating instability. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the potential for guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like UNH and CVS, which could influence CNC's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $65.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $65 CNC trades at 26× p/e — 1.4× the 19× p/e peer median, and above its own 13× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $50 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $39–$80. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 30% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.05 (-0.0% / 30d). 7 raised, 10 cut, 17 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$176.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$449.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,550.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: An increase in adjusted EPS guidance would show strong earnings momentum and confidence.
Confirms:Management raises 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to over $3.40 in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management keeps 2026 adjusted EPS guidance at or below $3.40.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Internal promotions and reappointments of executive officers.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$39.00 – $80.00 (median $58.00) · 17 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Managed Health Care.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CNC Centene Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | full | elevated |
UNH UnitedHealth Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ELV Elevance Health | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
HUM Humana | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | full | elevated |
MOH Molina Healthcare | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Centene aims to increase its 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to greater than $3.40.
Centene plans to increase its 2026 revenue guidance by $1 billion.
Centene aims to reduce its debt by $1 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
Centene aims to achieve an adjusted diluted EPS greater than $3.00 for the full year 2026.
Centene plans to increase its investment and other income by $50 million to $1.45 billion.
Why it matters: Cutting debt can make the company more stable. It can also help gain investor trust.
Confirms:The company plans to cut debt by $1 billion or more in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Company fails to reduce debt or increases debt levels in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Lawsuit results can affect Centene's money and image.
Confirms:Court ruling favors Centene in the ongoing litigation.
Disproves:A court ruled against Centene. This means they will face financial penalties.
Why it matters: More investment income helps the company’s finances and how it uses its money.
Confirms:Investment and other income reported up year over year.
Disproves:Investment and other income reported down year over year.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and market conditions.
Confirms:Management raises 2025 revenue guidance in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management may keep the 2025 revenue guidance the same or lower it.
Why it matters: Achieving EPS over $3.00 is a key goal for Centene. It signals financial strength.
Confirms:EPS reported above $3.00 in the next earnings release.
Disproves:EPS reported below $3.00 in the next earnings release.
shall be deemed to be furnished and not filed: 99.1 Press release of Centene Corporation issued April 28, 2026, as to financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. EXHIBIT INDEX Exhibit Number Description 99.1* Press release of Centene Corporation issued April 28, 2026 as to financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 104 Cover page information from Centene Corporation’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 28, 2026 formatted in Inline Extensible Business…
Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer — Theodore Pienkos: Theodore Pienkos promoted to Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer.
OTHER EVENTS On March 10, 2026, the Company delivered a notice of partial redemption to redeem on March 25, 2026 (the redemption date) $1,000,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 4.25% Notes due December 15, 2027 (the 2027 Notes) in accordance with the terms of the 2027 Notes and the Indenture dated as of December 6, 2019 between the Company and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A. as trustee. Following the redemption, approximately $1,186,664,000 of the 2027 Notes…
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE Centene Corporation (the Company) will be presenting at the Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT. A simultaneous live audio webcast of the presentation on March 10 will be available at https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1753406&tp_key=d357b0a0a7&tp_special=8. A webcast replay will be available following the presentation via the Company's website at www.centene.com, under the Investors section. During t…