Reading CHRW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHRW free→Reading CHRW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHRW free→NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CHRW is typical in performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If CHRW cuts guidance on the next call, that could be negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $193.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $194 CHRW trades at 37× p/e — 1.4× the 26× p/e peer median, and above its own 23× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $144 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $200–$230. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.46x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.52 → $1.52 (+0.0% / 30d). 10 raised, 9 cut, 22 covering analysts.
2 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 68% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$251.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,007.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing in tough times.
Confirms:Earnings per share exceed analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Disproves:Earnings per share fall short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHRW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Chief Strategy and Innovation Officer — Arun Rajan: Special equity award granted to retain and incentivize Arun Rajan.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$200.00 – $230.00 (median $210.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | moderate |
GXO GXO Logistics | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement Lean AI strategy to drive productivity improvements and cost efficiency.
Maintain capital expenditures within the guidance range of $75 million to $85 million for 2026.
Continue to gain market share in North American Surface Transportation (NAST) segment.
Ensure the effective tax rate remains within the guided range for 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue trends in Global Forwarding can indicate overall market health. A decline may signal broader industry issues.
Confirms:Global Forwarding revenue increases from the current $664.7 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Global Forwarding revenue drops more from the current $664.7 million.
Why it matters: C.H. Robinson is gaining market share in North American Surface Transportation. This shows they are doing better than competitors.
Confirms:C.H. Robinson reports NAST market share growth for the 13th consecutive quarter.
Disproves:Market share in NAST declines or remains flat for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the Lean AI strategy show how C.H. Robinson improves productivity. This can drive better earnings.
Confirms:Management shares updates on new wins in the Lean AI strategy.
Disproves:No updates or setbacks reported in the Lean AI strategy in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: If sector growth speeds up, it may benefit C.H. Robinson's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash generation means stronger financial health. This can help with future investments and returns for shareholders.
Confirms:Cash from operations rises above $68.6 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations keeps falling or stays below $68.6 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is being "furnished" in accordance with the General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information is being "furnished" in accordance with the General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly…
Director — Edward G. Feitzinger: Mr. Feitzinger was elected as a director and appointed to the Audit Committee.
Director — Henry W. "Jay" Winship: Mr. Winship resigned from the Board of Directors.