Reading CHRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHRD free→Reading CHRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHRD free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If CHRD cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $126.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $128 CHRD trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $125 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $140–$189. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -28.32x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.55 → $6.04 (+8.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$416.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,458.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows that Chord can produce well and work efficiently.
Confirms:2Q26 oil volume guidance meets or exceeds 164 MBopd.
Disproves:2Q26 oil volume guidance falls below 162.5 MBopd.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve $3.1B of Adjusted EBITDA in FY26
Earnings beat supports EBITDA growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
OF THIS CURRENT REPORT, INCLUDING EXHIBIT 99.1 ATTACHED HERETO, SHALL NOT BE DEEMED “FILED” FOR THE PURPOSES OF SECTION 18 OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934, AS AMENDED, NOR SHALL IT BE DEEMED INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE INTO ANY REGISTRATION STATEMENT OR OTHER FILING PURSUANT TO THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED, EXCEPT AS OTHERWISE EXPRESSLY STATED IN SUCH FILING. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this repor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $189.00 (median $175.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHRD Chord Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Chord Energy aims to keep capital expenditures at $1.4 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Chord Energy targets $3.1 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026.
Chord Energy aims to generate $1.4 billion in Adjusted Free Cash Flow for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps keep operations running and supports returns to shareholders.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $500MM in 2Q26.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations falls below $450MM in 2Q26.
Why it matters: Keeping CapEx at this level shows good management of money. It also shows strong operations.
Confirms:CapEx reported at $1.4B for FY26.
Disproves:CapEx exceeds $1.5B for FY26.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows good financial health and strong operations.
Confirms:Chord reports Adjusted EBITDA of $3.1B for FY26.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA falls below $2.8B for FY26.
Advances: Achieve $3.1B of Adjusted EBITDA in FY26
Raised output guidance enhances EBITDA outlook.
OF THIS CURRENT REPORT, INCLUDING EXHIBIT 99.1 ATTACHED HERETO, SHALL NOT BE DEEMED “FILED” FOR THE PURPOSES OF SECTION 18 OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934, AS AMENDED, NOR SHALL IT BE DEEMED INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE INTO ANY REGISTRATION STATEMENT OR OTHER FILING PURSUANT TO THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED, EXCEPT AS OTHERWISE EXPRESSLY STATED IN SUCH FILING. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this repor…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture for 6.000% Senior Notes due 2030 On September 30, 2025, Chord Energy Corporation (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offering of $750 million in aggregate principal amount of its 6.000% senior unsecured notes due 2030 (the “Notes”), which are fully and unconditionally guaranteed on a senior unsecured basis by certain of the Company’s subsidiaries (collectively, the “Guarantors”). The terms of the Notes are governed by the in…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in