Reading CHH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHH free→Reading CHH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHH free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLodgingSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CHH is typical in valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This is because it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If CHH cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $109.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $110 CHH trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $94 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $86–$128. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 17% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.97 → $1.95 (-1.0% / 30d). 11 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 19% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$162.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,745.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend is important for investor trust and how money is used.
Confirms:Confirmation that the dividend payout remains on track during the next earnings call.
Disproves:A dividend cut or suspension is announced.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President & CEO — Patrick S. Pacious: The CEO is stepping down and the company has not yet named a permanent successor.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$86.00 – $128.00 (median $112.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHH Choice Hotels | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
BKNG Booking Holdings | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MAR Marriott International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HLT Hilton Worldwide | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABNB Airbnb | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payouts to shareholders.
Focus on growing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Ensure stable operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend payout shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. This can boost investor trust.
Confirms:Management confirms the dividend payout will stay at $0.2875 per share.
Disproves:Management says they will lower the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows the company is making progress.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategy will shape the company's direction. This could affect growth and operations.
Confirms one read:The new CEO announces a clear growth strategy within the transition period.
Confirms the other:The new CEO fails to outline a clear strategy, causing uncertainty.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows financial health. It affects future growth and investor feelings.
Confirms:Operating income stays the same or increases compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income goes down more compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A new CEO could change the company's direction and impact investor confidence.
Confirms:A press release naming a new CEO with a strong track record in the industry.
Disproves:No new CEO announced by the next earnings date on August 5, 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Choice Hotels International, Inc. issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.