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CF
CF IndustriesNYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$109.48+2.74%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on whether CF cuts guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Market cap
- $17.15B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2005-05-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $109.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$260.68consensus
Range $148.82 – $282.39
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$134.69consensus
Range $115.99 – $185.27
vs price: -19% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $109 CF trades at 10× p/e, below its 25× p/e peer median. Our $276 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $85–$145. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
9.8x
peer 25.5x · own history 10.5x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-60%
our forecast 1%
Our fair value
$276.28
range $154.89 – $292.09
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
86th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
30th pctl · Materials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to rise when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +48.5% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.98 → $5.91 (+48.5% / 30d). 4 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$384.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,488.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for updates on Blue Point joint venture spending.
Why it matters: Watching how much money is spent on this project is important for CF's growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management says Blue Point JV spending is on track or has been cut.
Disproves:Management reports big cost overruns or delays in Blue Point JV spending.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CF yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CTVA, MOS, and SMG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting CF and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CF raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CF cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CTVA, MOS, and SMG start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping CF and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CF and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. will host a conference call discussing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, at which the presentation attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 will be used. The information set forth herein, including the exhibit attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing u…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.