Reading CENX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENX free→Reading CENX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENX free→NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis), and the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are showing signs of decline. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from CENX and the performance of sector bellwethers like AA and KALU. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $61.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 CENX trades at 16× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $66 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.31 → $2.32 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$268.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$621.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,356.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum rose by 25.6 points (from -28.8 to -3.2).
As of June 12, 2026, company momentum rose. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Risk remained elevated. Earnings quality was described as fragile.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Margins above 20% show good cost management and help make more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported above 20% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin falls below 20% in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CENX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Century Aluminum Company (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations for quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a follow-up conference call on Thursday, May 7, 2026 , at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The earnings call will be webcast live on the Company’s website, located at www.century…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CENX Century Aluminum Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance gross profit margins through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Focus on increasing operating income through strategic cost management and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show that the materials sector is getting better.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: CPI changes can affect aluminum prices and demand in the sector.
Confirms one read:CPI increases more than 0.5% month over month.
Confirms the other:CPI decreases or stays flat month over month.
Why it matters: Staying above this level shows good cost management. It also supports growth.
Confirms:Operating income is more than $300 million.
Disproves:Operating income is less than $250 million.