Reading CENTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENTA free→Reading CENTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CENTA free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If CENTA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 CENTA trades at 13× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $49 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 24% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.59 → $1.52 (-4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$241.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,951.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This EPS target shows strong earnings growth. It also shows management's confidence. It reflects Central's ability to handle market challenges.
Confirms:Management confirms non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.70 or better in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers EPS guidance below $2.70 in the next earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CENTA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 6, 2026, Central Garden & Pet Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter fiscal year 2026 ended March 28, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Household Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CENTA Central Garden & Pet Company (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CL Colgate-Palmolive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
KMB Kimberly-Clark | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CHD Church & Dwight | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 35 of 100 | expensive | low |
CLX Clorox | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Central Garden & Pet aims to achieve a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.70 or better for fiscal 2026.
Central plans to maintain capital expenditures between $50 million and $60 million for fiscal 2026.
Central aims to strengthen its focus on its branded portfolio and explore growth opportunities.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the consumer staples sector. It would indicate Central Garden & Pet is gaining momentum in a mature market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This CAPEX range shows Central's focus on growth. It also shows their aim for efficiency. It will affect future profits.
Confirms:CAPEX reported in the next earnings call is within the $50M to $60M range.
Disproves:CAPEX reported exceeds $60M or drops below $50M in the next earnings call.