Reading CE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CE free→Reading CE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CE free→NYSEMaterialsChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If CE cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.48. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $53 CE trades at 13× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $87 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $55–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 38% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.08x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.45 → $2.24 (+54.5% / 30d). 13 raised, 1 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 9.7% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$187.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$563.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,298.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for Celanese's financial health. It supports growth and stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays flat compared to Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 10, 2026, Celanese US Holdings LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Celanese Corporation, issued a notice of redemption for all of its outstanding 4.777% Senior Notes due July 19, 2026 (the “Notes”) pursuant to the indenture governing the Notes. The redemption is expected to occur on June 25, 2026 (the “Redemption Date”). The Notes are redeemable at a redemption price that will be equal to the sum of 100% of the principal amount of the Notes being redeemed plus accrued and…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$55.00 – $75.00 (median $63.50) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CE Celanese | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | — | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing cash generated from operating activities to support financial stability.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through strategic initiatives.
Aim to boost net income through strategic and operational improvements.
Why it matters: Higher net income means better profits. It shows management is effective.
Confirms:Net income increases year over year, exceeding $44M in Q2.
Disproves:Net income declines year over year or stays below $44M in Q2.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in decline. Positive revenue growth could signal a recovery for Celanese.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for three years.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows management is doing a good job. It helps overall profits.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is up from last year. It is over $214M.
Disproves:Q2 operating income declines year over year or stays below $214M.
disclosure. Each Non-US GAAP financial measure appearing in the press release is accompanied by the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measure and is reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP financial measure in Exhibit 99.2, which includes other supplemental information of interest to investors, analysts and other parties, including the reasons why management believes such Non-US GAAP financial measures provide useful information to investors, and which is incorporated herein solely…
Director — Anne P. Noonan: Election of a new independent director to the Board.