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CCL
CarnivalNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$29.18+3.77%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although CCL trades above typical for sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Travel Services
- Market cap
- $38.41B
- Employees
- 101,000
- IPO date
- 1995-02-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-06-23
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$43.36consensus
Range $40.33 – $51.80
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$54.39consensus
Range $52.49 – $56.63
vs price: -46% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $29 CCL trades at 13× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $44 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $36–$39. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.7x
peer 18.3x · own history 14.8x
Premium
0.7x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-33%
our forecast 17%
Our fair value
$43.72
range $40.12 – $52.23
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
54th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
65th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish20 analysts, 82% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.42 → $1.42 (-0.3% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 20 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 28.2% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$225.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,938.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance to meet or exceed $1.48 billion
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong operations. It helps reach the $7 billion yearly goal.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $1.48 billion or more.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA was less than $1.48 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CCL yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BKNG, ABNB, and RCL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting CCL and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CCL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-27), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CCL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-27), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like BKNG, ABNB, and RCL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping CCL and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CCL and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 3.01
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. The information set forth in the Introductory Note and
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.