Reading CASY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CASY free→Reading CASY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CASY free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality and stable management. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 82% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $895.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $895 CASY trades at 47× p/e — 2.7× the 18× p/e peer median, and above its own 27× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $493 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $665–$1,069. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 81% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $6.63. 3 raised, 2 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 10 maintained. 63% of analysts rate Buy.
13 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.5% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$113.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$220.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,607.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will provide insights into Casey's financial health and growth trends. It will be a key indicator of performance.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows EPS growth above 20% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows EPS growth below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CASY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 9, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended April 30, 2026 (the "Press Release") . A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$665.00 – $1069.00 (median $880.00) · 20 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CASY Casey's | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KR Kroger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CART Maplebear Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | elevated |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ACI Albertsons | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Casey's aims to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026 through a mix of M&A and new store construction.
Casey's plans to allocate approximately $600 million for capital expenditures in fiscal 2026.
Casey's aims to increase inside same-store sales by 3.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026.
Casey's has expanded its share repurchase authorization to a total of $1 billion.
Why it matters: This growth range is key to showing Casey's can keep its sales momentum. It reflects customer demand and store performance.
Confirms:Q4 inside same-store sales growth lands at or above 4.5%.
Disproves:Q4 inside same-store sales growth falls below 3.5%.
Why it matters: This metric shows how well Casey's is managing fuel sales. It impacts overall revenue and profitability.
Confirms one read:Same-store fuel gallons sold grows between 0% and 1%.
Confirms the other:Same-store fuel gallons sold declines more than 1%.
Why it matters: This growth range shows good performance and cost control. It affects overall profits.
Confirms:Q4 EBITDA growth is reported at or above 20%.
Disproves:Q4 EBITDA growth is reported below 18%.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is crucial for growth. It shows Casey's is expanding its footprint and reaching more customers.
Confirms:Casey's opens 80 or more new stores by the end of fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Casey's opens fewer than 80 new stores by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs can hurt profits. Watching this shows how well costs are managed.
Confirms:Operating costs are expected to grow by 10% or less for fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Operating costs are expected to grow by more than 10% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key for growth. It shows Casey's commitment to expanding its footprint.
Confirms:Announcement of 80 or more new store openings by the end of fiscal 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 80 new store openings reported by the end of fiscal 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers 2026 Fiscal Year Annual Incentive Payouts On June 3, 2026, the Compensation and Human Capital Committee (the “Committee”) of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) authorized payment to the Company’s NEOs under the 2026 fiscal year Annual Incentive Plan. Based on the Company's performance in its 2026 fiscal year, the payouts equal 161% of “t…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 4, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (the “Company”) (i) expanded the size of the Board from eleven to twelve directors, and (ii) appointed Stanley J. Sutula III to fill the vacancy created by the expansion, and (iii) appointed Mr. Sutula to serve on the Audit Committee, each effective as of June 4, 2…
Other Events In the Press Release, the Company also announced that, on and as effective as of June 4, 2026, the Board approved an expansion of the Company's existing $400 million share repurchase authorization to a total aggregate amount of up to $1 billion. Under the authorization, the Company may repurchase shares in the open market, through private transactions or otherwise, and the number and timing of shares that may be repurchased will depend on a variety of factors including, but not l…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On March 9, 2026, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended January 31, 2026 (the "Press Release"). A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.