Reading CAG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAG free→Reading CAG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CAG free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital-friendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.74. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 CAG trades at 8× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$20. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted -28.67x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.39 → $0.37 (-4.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 5 maintained. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · -29.3% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$128.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$305.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,017.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A decline worse than -1% shows ongoing revenue challenges, impacting growth outlook.
Confirms:Organic net sales change reported worse than -1% for Q4.
Disproves:Organic net sales change reported at or above 1% for Q4.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CAG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President and Chief Executive Officer — John Brase: Appointment of John Brase as President and CEO from an external company.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.00 – $20.00 (median $15.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CAG Conagra Brands | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Conagra aims to achieve adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85 for fiscal 2026.
Conagra aims to maintain an adjusted operating margin near 11.5% for fiscal 2026.
Conagra targets an organic net sales change between (1)% and 1% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the margin shows good cost control. This is important for making money.
Confirms:Operating margin is at or above 11.5%.
Disproves:The operating margin is less than 11.5%.
Why it matters: New strategies from the new CEO could impact growth and operational direction.
Confirms one read:New strategic plans for growth or saving costs will be announced.
Confirms the other:No new strategic plans announced or plans remain the same.
Why it matters: A margin below 11.5% raises worries about costs and profits.
Confirms:Operating margin was below 11.5% for Q4.
Disproves:Operating margin reported at or above 11.5% for Q4.
Why it matters: Improving adjusted EPS signals better financial health and progress towards goals. The company aims for $1.70 to $1.85.
Confirms:Adjusted EPS reported above $1.70 in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Adjusted EPS reported below $1.70 in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS target shows progress in growth and can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q1 adjusted EPS reported at $1.70 or higher.
Disproves:Q1 adjusted EPS reported below $1.70.
Why it matters: Better sales growth means stronger market performance. It shows more demand for products.
Confirms:Organic net sales change is above 0%.
Disproves:Organic net sales change is below -1%.
Why it matters: The new CEO may bring changes that affect company performance and strategy.
Confirms one read:Positive changes in company performance metrics after John Brase starts on June 1, 2026.
Confirms the other:No improvement or decline in performance metrics after John Brase starts on June 1, 2026.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such fili…
Director — John Mulligan, Pietro Satriano: Two new directors were appointed to the Board.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities under that section and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general incorporation language in such fili…
Senior Vice President, Corporate Controller (principal accounting officer) — Melissa Napier: Ms. Napier was promoted internally to a new senior role.