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BX
Blackstone Inc.NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· 1–3 mo
$122.79+1.58%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BX compared to sector peers being below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, which could impact BX's outlook. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Market cap
- $147.03B
- Employees
- 5,285
- IPO date
- 2007-03-22
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$87.14consensus
Range $59.61 – $93.32
vs price: +41% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$124.39consensus
Range $65.40 – $154.86
vs price: -1% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $123 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 27× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $87 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $130–$184. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.0x
peer 14.9x · own history 26.6x
Premium
1.4x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
41%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$87.14
range $59.89 – $93.32
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 41% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
37th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.49x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
66th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -5.9% / 30d, n=16for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.44 → $1.36 (-5.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 12 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 59% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 26.7% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$159.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$393.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,477.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Fee Related Earnings staying above $1.5 billion
Why it matters: High Fee Related Earnings show that operations are doing well.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Fee Related Earnings reported above $1.5 billion in Q2.
Disproves:Fee Related Earnings reported below $1.3 billion in Q2.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, KKR, and APO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting BX and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-24), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BX cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-24), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on BX and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like BLK, KKR, and APO start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping BX and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-231mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Blackstone Inc. issued a press release and detailed presentation announcing financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. All information in the press release is furnished but not filed.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+14 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.