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BWIN
Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (The)NASDAQFinancialsInsurance BrokersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this week
$18.13-1.84%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
BWIN screens as a weak quality-and-value setup, with recent financial performance weak and management's recent track record volatile. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, while its earnings yield is not available due to the loss-making status. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Insurance Brokers
- Market cap
- $1.80B
- Employees
- 5,000
- IPO date
- 2019-09-23
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$21.90consensus
Range $21.78 – $66.03
vs price: -17% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$119.85consensus
Range $82.86 – $134.15
vs price: -85% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $18 BWIN trades at 11× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $20–$40. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.9x
peer 12.6x · own history —
Premium
0.9x peer
Growth the price needs
-22%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$23.31
range $21.85 – $47.47
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
1st pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.43x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral9 analysts, 60% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.47 (+1.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 81.9% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weakProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$247.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$567.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,295.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 0d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth dropping below 15%
Why it matters: A drop below 15% signals a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact Baldwin's growth outlook.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BWIN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
- Watch for changes in FOMC interest rate policy on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting BWIN and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BWIN raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BWIN cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on BWIN and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MRSH, AON, and AJG start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping BWIN and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Johnathan Daniel to serve as interim Chief Accounting Officer of the Company effective upon the commencement of Corbyn Lichon’s, the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer, maternity leave, which is expected to begin in mid-to-late June 2026. Mr. Dani…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.