Reading BWA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWA free→Reading BWA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWA free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with BWA trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If BWA cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.51. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $75 BWA trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $68 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $55–$95. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.75x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.27 → $1.27 (-0.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 9 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 56% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.3% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$303.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,380.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improving gross profit margin is key for BorgWarner's financial health. It shows better cost control.
Confirms:Q2 gross profit margin rises above 35%.
Disproves:Q2 gross profit margin stays below 32%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BWA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Vice President of BorgWarner Inc., President and General Manager of Battery Energy Systems, Chief Technology Officer of BorgWarner Inc. — Stefan Demmerle: Mr. Demmerle was promoted to a new role with expanded responsibilities.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$55.00 – $95.00 (median $75.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Parts & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BWA BorgWarner | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | full | moderate |
MOD Modine Manufacturing Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
APTV Aptiv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AUR Aurora Innovation Inc | — | — | elevated |
ALV Autoliv | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving gross profit margin through operational efficiencies and cost management.
Continue efforts to increase cash generated from operating activities.
Focus on strategies to boost net income through revenue growth and cost management.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows BorgWarner is managing its operations effectively. This supports growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities is more than $150 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities is less than $100 million in Q2.
Why it matters: How the sector performs affects BorgWarner's growth. A drop in revenue growth shows challenges.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below its median. This shows weakness in the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above its median, showing sector strength.
Why it matters: Higher net income means more profit. This is good for investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income exceeds $80 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income falls below $60 million.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, BorgWarner Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The earnings call presentation to which the attached press release refers is available at https://www.borgwarner.com/investors, but it is not incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in
Stockholders approved an amended and restated stock incentive plan.