Reading BTU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BTU free→
BTU
Peabody Energy, Inc.NYSEEnergyThermal CoalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$27.40+3.95%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Thermal Coal
- Market cap
- $3.21B
- Employees
- 5,400
- IPO date
- 1998-11-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$29.80consensus
Range $23.12 – $44.81
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$83.22consensus
Range $83.22 – $83.22
vs price: -67% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $27 BTU trades at 1× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.8x
peer 1.8x · own history 0.8x
Premium
0.4x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
-7%
our forecast -11%
Our fair value
$29.37
range $22.90 – $45.41
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 7% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated weak grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
18th pctl · Energy
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -2.23x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated volatile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=252).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -136.4% / 30d, n=4for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.79 → $-0.29 (-136.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: energy is in mature, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$244.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$583.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,086.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
- score change · valuation_scoresmall change
Valuation fell by 12.8 points (from 69.0 to 56.2).
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
Valuation fell. The valuation label changed from "inexpensive" to "fair.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for the quarterly dividend payment on June 8, 2026
Why it matters: The dividend shows Peabody's promise to give cash to shareholders. If paid, it shows financial strength.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.075 per share on June 8, 2026.
Disproves:The company suspends or cuts the dividend payment.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BTU yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in oil prices following CPI and PPI reports
- Watch for energy revenue growth to pick up above 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CNR and NC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Energy sector momentum should keep lifting BTU and other Energy names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BTU raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit BTU and other Energy names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If BTU cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CNR and NC start missing or guiding lower, the Energy tailwind helping BTU and other Energy names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0211d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Convertible Notes and the Indenture On May 28, 2026, Peabody Energy Corporation (the “Company” or “Peabody”) priced its private offering of $225 million in aggregate principal amount of 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 (the “Initial Notes”). On May 29, 2026, the initial purchasers in such offering exercised their option (the “Notes Option”) to purchase an additional $25 million in aggregate principal amount of the Notes (together with the “In…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.