Reading BTMD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BTMD free→
BTMD
Biote Corp.NASDAQHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$2.46+1.23%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major healthcare companies. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Market cap
- $86.39M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2021-02-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$6.78consensus
Range $4.38 – $7.18
vs price: -64% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $2.46 BTMD trades at 5× p/e, below its 14× p/e peer median. Our $6.78 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
5.3x
peer 14.5x · own history —
Premium
0.4x peer
Growth the price needs
-64%
our forecast -3%
Our fair value
$6.78
range $4.38 – $7.18
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 64% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
79th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
69th pctl · Health Care
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -63.6% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.08 (-63.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$267.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$616.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,143.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 0d
Watch for Biote Corp. revenue growth re-accelerating
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for the company. This would be important as the healthcare sector is maturing and slowing down.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Biote Corp. reports revenue growth above 10% year over year in the next earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BTMD yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting BTMD and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BTMD raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-02), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BTMD and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If BTMD cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-02), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like HCA, THC, and DVA start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping BTMD and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.