Reading BOOT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOOT free→Reading BOOT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOOT free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $170.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $171 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $115 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $225–$272. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 49% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.35x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $1.70 (-11.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 6 maintained. 93% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 62.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$194.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$418.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,501.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 12.9 points (from 37.1 to 50.0).
As of June 12, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is moderate. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can hurt how much people spend. This can affect Boot Barn's sales.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000 for the week.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOOT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
by reference. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is intended to be “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by sp…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$225.00 – $272.00 (median $248.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target revenue growth of 14% to 16% for the first fiscal quarter of 2026.
Target revenue growth of 14% to 16% for the fiscal year ending March 27, 2027.
Maintain the operating income guidance range for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This growth target is key for Boot Barn's performance in 2026. Meeting it shows strong demand and execution.
Confirms:Q1 revenue growth reported between 14% and 16%.
Disproves:Q1 revenue growth reported below 14%.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show consumer spending trends, which affect Boot Barn's performance.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline by more than 1% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it may signal a slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Steady income guidance is important for investor trust. It shows profits are stable.
Confirms:Operating income guidance for 2026 is the same.
Disproves:The forecast for operating income in 2026 is lower.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer demand for Boot Barn's products. Strong sales can boost revenue.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3%.
Confirms the other:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth below 1%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well Boot Barn is doing. It can affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.