Reading BOH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOH free→Reading BOH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOH free→NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If BOH cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $80 the market pays 16× p/e — above the 12× p/e peer median but in line with its own 15× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $62 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 29% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.88x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.47 → $1.46 (-0.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 13.2% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$226.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,504.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 12, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader environment. Earnings quality is described as fragile, reflecting potential weaknesses in financial performance.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong operating income growth shows the bank is enhancing its efficiency. This is key for long-term profitability.
Confirms:Operating income growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income growth is below 5% year over year in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 20, 2026, Bank of Hawaii Corporation announced its results of operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The public announcement was made by means of a press release, the text of which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOH Bank of Hawaii | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a stable dividend payout to shareholders.
Focus on strategies to grow net income over time.
Improve operating income through efficiency and revenue growth.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims could hurt Bank of Hawaii's loan performance and overall growth.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Unemployment claims stay below 250,000.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader economic issues. This could impact Bank of Hawaii's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median of 13%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median of 13%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout is important for investor trust. A steady payout shows financial stability.
Confirms one read:The company announces a dividend payout ratio of 50% or higher.
Confirms the other:The company cuts the dividend payout ratio below 40%.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth supports Bank of Hawaii's goal to increase profits. It shows the bank is managing well in its growth phase.
Confirms:Q2 net income growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 net income growth falls below 0% year over year.