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Builders FirstSourceNYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$77.77-1.02%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BLDR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Building Products & Equipment
- Market cap
- $7.91B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2005-02-14
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$107.81consensus
Range $79.68 – $134.17
vs price: -28% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$103.71consensus
Range $59.14 – $171.80
vs price: -25% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $78 BLDR trades at 16× p/e, below its 18× p/e peer median. Our $109 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $81–$125. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.0x
peer 17.9x · own history 11.7x
Premium
0.9x peer
1.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
-29%
our forecast -13%
Our fair value
$108.90
range $79.68 – $134.17
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
36th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.02x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
89th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -34.8% / 30d, n=18for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.96 → $1.27 (-34.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 18 cut, 18 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$220.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$450.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,551.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelsmall change
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Management is described as volatile.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 18d
Watch for gross margin performance in Q2
Why it matters: Gross margin is key for profitability. A drop below 27.5% may indicate deeper issues in cost management.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Gross margin exceeds 29% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross margin falls below 27.5% in Q2.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BLDR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting BLDR and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If BLDR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If BLDR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like TT, JCI, and CARR start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping BLDR and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits BLDR and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-058d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 3, 2026, Mark A. Alexander notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Builders FirstSource, Inc. (the “Company”) of his resignation from the Board, effective immediately, due to health reasons. Mr. Alexander’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, polici…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.