Reading BKH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKH free→Reading BKH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKH free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, BKH is below typical. Earnings quality and management's track record are neutral, while the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly moves. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact BKH's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 BKH trades at 18× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $78 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated strong grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.41 (-20.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 8.4% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$207.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,178.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 50.0 points (from 31.8 to -18.2).
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
Composite insight fell by 11.3 points (from -0.1 to -11.4).
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Company momentum fell. The signal changed to cautious. Composite insight fell. Confidence changed to high.
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Stable operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This helps profits.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 is stable or higher than in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income drops a lot compared to Q1 results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Focus on operating income stability
Rate increase supports operating income stability objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKH Black Hills Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 21 of 100 | fair | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | low |
SRE Sempra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | low |
D Dominion Energy | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
XEL Xcel Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the EPS guidance range of $4.25 to $4.45 for fiscal year 2026.
Maintain stability in operating income through disciplined financial management.
Increase cash generated from operating activities to support financial health.
as of 2026-06-12
Why it matters: This lawsuit could change the merger with NorthWestern. It may also impact financial health.
Confirms:A good ruling or settlement could help the merger with NorthWestern.
Disproves:A ruling that negatively impacts the merger or leads to increased costs.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal better times for Black Hills and its peers.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It helps with future investments and dividends.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities goes up year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities goes down year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how well Black Hills is performing. It can impact investor views.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats the consensus estimate by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS falls short of the consensus estimate by more than 5%.
Why it matters: EPS guidance of $4.25 to $4.45 is key for growth. A revision signals management confidence.
Confirms one read:Management says EPS guidance is between $4.25 and $4.45 during the earnings call.
Confirms the other:Management lowers EPS guidance to below $4.25 during the earnings call.
contains: 1. Historical financial statements of NorthWestern filed in accordance with Rule 3-05 of Regulation S-X, included as Exhibit 99.1, which are incorporated herein by reference; and 2. Pro forma financial information of Black Hills and NorthWestern on a combined basis in accordance with Article 11 of Regulation S-X giving effect to certain pro forma adjustments related to the pending merger transaction as if it were completed on January 1, 2025 as it relates to the pro forma combined c…