Reading BF-B? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BF-B free→
BF-B
Brown–FormanNYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$27.01+1.24%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, although it has made capital-friendly decisions. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
- Market cap
- $12.26B
- Employees
- 5,000
- IPO date
- 1994-03-04
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$29.92consensus
Range $26.89 – $35.73
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$35.64consensus
Range $32.08 – $41.58
vs price: -24% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $27 BF-B trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 18× p/e peer median. Our $30 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
17.7x
peer 17.6x · own history 22.8x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-10%
our forecast 4%
Our fair value
$29.92
range $26.89 – $35.73
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
92nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
18th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish12 analysts, 16% Buyfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.37 (-1.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 6 cut, 12 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 16% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$345.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,548.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for revenue growth trends in the Consumer Staples sector
Why it matters: Changes in sector growth can affect Brown-Forman's success and market standing.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth picks back up above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth keeps slowing down to below 5% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BF-B yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If BF-B raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-04), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BF-B and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If BF-B cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-04), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like DEO, MGPI, and WVVI start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), BF-B and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
- If BF-B misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -64% on the 2026-04-30 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-049d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition, including the information in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for any purpose, including for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorpor…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-16 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.