Reading BEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BEN free→Reading BEN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BEN free→NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 38% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This is because it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If BEN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 BEN trades at 21× p/e — 1.4× the 15× p/e peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $23 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $26–$34. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 39% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.64 → $0.64 (+0.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 2 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 27% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.6% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$157.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$284.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,921.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'expensive'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed and became expensive. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, while recent performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Confirms:Dividends declared per share remain stable or increase from $0.33.
Disproves:Dividends declared go down from the current level.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BEN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, Western Asset Management Company, LLC (“Western Asset”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc., received notifications of investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice (the “DOJ”) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) regarding alleged violations of certain laws related to trade allocations by Ken Leech, the former co-Chief Investment Officer of Western Asset. The DOJ has notified Western Asset that it is no longer…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$26.00 – $34.00 (median $31.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Asset Management & Custody Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BEN Franklin Resources | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BLK BlackRock | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BX Blackstone Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
BNY BNY Mellon | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | low |
BK BNY Mellon | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 63% of the last 8 guided quarters · 5.4% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering earnings growth through diversified global platforms and positive net flows.
Expand the share buyback program to enhance shareholder value.
Commit to consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Strong inflows would show continued demand for Franklin's investment products and growth in AUM.
Confirms:Long-term net inflows reported above $30 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Disproves:Long-term net inflows fall below $10 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
Why it matters: An increase shows that management trusts the company's value and future.
Confirms:Announcement of a larger share buyback than before.
Disproves:No news or a cut in share buyback.
Why it matters: This result could change how people view Franklin. It could also impact their finances.
Confirms:Public statements show good news from the DOJ and SEC investigations.
Disproves:New bad news or penalties from the investigations.
Why it matters: A big drop would raise worries about costs and making money.
Confirms:Adjusted operating income drops more than 10% from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted operating income stays the same or grows from Q1 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Franklin Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company’s second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 30, 2026, Franklin Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company’s first fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Joinder and Commitment Increase Agreement On December 11, 2025, Franklin Resources, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Joinder and Commitment Increase Agreement (the “Joinder Agreement”), by and among the Company, as borrower, Mizuho Bank, Ltd., Royal Bank of Canada, The Bank of New York Mellon, each of the other Lenders party thereto and Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent, which amends the Amended and Restated…
Other Events. On December 17, 2025, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized the Company to repurchase, from time to time, up to an additional 20.8 million shares of its common stock in either open market or private transactions, for a total of up to 40.0 million shares available for repurchase. The new share authorization is in addition to the existing authorization, of which approximately 19.2 million shares remained available for repurchase at November 30, 2025. The size and timing…