Reading BBW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBW free→Reading BBW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BBW free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, which is a concern. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 BBW trades at 8× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $61 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 47% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.65 → $0.65 (+0.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 58.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$195.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$501.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,708.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
New CEO appointment aligns with leadership stability.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 12, 2026, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that the Company had promoted Voin Todorovic, to the additional role of Chief Administrative Officer effective as of June 11, 2026 (the “Promotion Effective Date”), while he will continue to serve as Chief Financial Officer of the Company. Prior to the promotion to serve as bot…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims for total revenue between $530 million and $550 million for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $122.679M in 2025-Q3 to $125.27M in 2027-Q1, showing limited progress towards the $530M to $550M target for 2026. The trajectory indicates a need for acceleration to meet the annual goal.
“The Company now expects: Total revenue of $530 million to $550 million.”
“The Company reaffirms its guidance for fiscal 2025.”
The company plans capital expenditures in the range of $22 million to $25 million for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has consistently guided for capital expenditures between $22M and $25M for 2026. No specific capex figures are available for recent quarters, indicating a need for further updates to assess progress.
“Capital expenditures of $22 million to $25 million for fiscal 2026.”
“Capital expenditures in the range of $22 million to $25 million.”
The company expects pre-tax income to range from $72 million to $78 million for fiscal 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a pre-tax income target of $72M to $78M for 2026. With no specific pre-tax income figures available for recent quarters, the trajectory towards this target remains to be assessed.
“The Company now expects: Pre-tax income of $72 million to $78 million.”
Other Events. On June 11, 2026, the Board of Directors of Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (the “Company”) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share to be paid on July 9, 2026, to all holders of record of issued and outstanding shares of the Company’s common stock as of the close of business on June 25, 2026. On June 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the quarterly dividend. A copy of the press release has been filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8…