Reading AVO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVO free→Reading AVO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVO free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AVO trading below typical compared to its peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 AVO trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $10 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.54x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.13 (-34.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$174.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$343.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,409.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 8, 2026, Mission Produce, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the related information set forth in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, is being “furnished” and shall not be deem…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Food Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVO Mission Produce, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | full | moderate |
SYY Sysco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
USFD US Foods | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFGC Performance Food Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 19 of 100 | full | moderate |
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=379).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has announced a new stock repurchase program allowing up to $100 million in buybacks over the next 36 months.
Focus on improving operating income, which has shown volatility over recent quarters.
The company aims to enhance cash flow from operations, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Other Events The press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference also contains an announcement that on June 3, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program which permits the Company to repurchase up to $100 million of the Company’s common stock over the next 36 months, effective June 3, 2026 (the “2026 Program”). The 2026 Program replaces the Company’s previous common stock repurchase program adopted in September 2023, which would ha…