Reading AVNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVNS free→Reading AVNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVNS free→NYSEHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, while AVNS trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Healthcare companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $21 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.16 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$36.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$310.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,101.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
Risk changed. The risk label moved from elevated to moderate. Earnings quality remains loss-making. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow is critical for funding growth and operations. It shows financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported at or above previous levels.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations was below past levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVNS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVNS Avanos Medical, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | full | moderate |
MDLN MEDLINE INC | — | full | moderate |
WST West Pharmaceutical Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COO Cooper Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALGN Align Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may signal broader challenges for Avanos. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth for Avanos. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving operating income would show that Avanos is managing costs well. This is key for future growth.
Confirms:Operating income was higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income was lower than last quarter.